How to read a market without the panic
Three numbers tell you almost everything. Everything else is noise.
Every market update — from a TikTok, a newsletter, or a listing agent trying to win your business — comes down to three numbers. Learn to read them yourself and you'll never have to take anyone's word for what's "really happening."
- Months of supply. How long it would take to sell every home currently listed at the current sales pace. Under ~3 months is a seller's market. Over ~6 is a buyer's market. Everything between is negotiable, which is where most of Chicago sits most years.
- Days on market (DOM), trending. Not the number itself — the direction. A neighborhood where DOM is climbing month over month is softening even if prices haven't dropped yet. Prices are a lagging indicator; DOM moves first.
- Price-per-square-foot trend, not median price. Median price swings with whatever happened to sell that month — one $2M teardown sale skews a whole neighborhood's median. Price/sqft on comparable homes is a cleaner read.
What this means in practice: if someone tells you "the market is crazy right now" without one of these three numbers attached, they're describing a feeling, not a market. Ask for the number. If they don't have it, get a second opinion — ideally from someone who pulls this data before every listing appointment, not just before a TikTok.